Gretna 2008 2–0 Edinburgh University

Gretna 2008

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 1

Edinburgh University

4/20/2024

League #731 · Lowland League - 34Raydale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gretna 200870%

×Draw14%

Edinburgh University16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gretna 2008Expected goals in this matchEdinburgh University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.67

1.80

Gretna 2008

3.67

Edinburgh University

1.80

Gretna 2008 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.75

creates per match

1.60

2.00

allows per match

4.60

creates per match

Gretna 2008

2.75

Edinburgh University

1.60

allows per match

Gretna 2008

2.00

Edinburgh University

4.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gretna 2008+0.00on par

Edinburgh University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gretna 2008 ↓

Edinburgh University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

78%22%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Gretna 2008 or draw

84%

Gretna 2008 or Edinburgh University

86%

Draw or Edinburgh University

30%

Winning margin

Gretna 2008 wins by 2+

52%

Edinburgh University wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gretna 2008 1+ goals

97%

Gretna 2008 2+ goals

87%

Gretna 2008 3+ goals

68%

Edinburgh University 1+ goals

83%

Edinburgh University 2+ goals

54%

Edinburgh University 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Gretna 2008 (draw refunded)

81%

Edinburgh University (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gretna 2008 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Edinburgh University away — creates 1.60, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gretna 2008 attack 2.75 + Edinburgh University defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 3.67

Edinburgh University attack 1.60 + Gretna 2008 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Gretna 2008 scores more

70%

level

14%

Edinburgh University scores more

16%

Gretna 2008 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Gretna 2008 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff