Edinburgh University 3–2 Gretna 2008

Edinburgh University

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Gretna 2008

10/21/2023

League #731 · Lowland League - 14East Peffermill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Edinburgh University48%

×Draw23%

Gretna 200829%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh UniversityExpected goals in this matchGretna 2008

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.39

Edinburgh University

1.83

Gretna 2008

1.39

Edinburgh University creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

0.60

2.17

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Edinburgh University

1.67

Gretna 2008

0.60

allows per match

Edinburgh University

2.17

Gretna 2008

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh University+0.00on par

Gretna 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh University ↓

Gretna 2008 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Edinburgh University or draw

71%

Edinburgh University or Gretna 2008

77%

Draw or Gretna 2008

52%

Winning margin

Edinburgh University wins by 2+

26%

Gretna 2008 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Edinburgh University 1+ goals

84%

Edinburgh University 2+ goals

54%

Edinburgh University 3+ goals

28%

Gretna 2008 1+ goals

75%

Gretna 2008 2+ goals

40%

Gretna 2008 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh University (draw refunded)

62%

Gretna 2008 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh University at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Gretna 2008 away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh University attack 1.67 + Gretna 2008 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Gretna 2008 attack 0.60 + Edinburgh University defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Edinburgh University scores more

48%

level

23%

Gretna 2008 scores more

29%

Edinburgh University at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Edinburgh University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff