Grenoble 1–2 Dijon: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Grenoble

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dijon

Y. Ravet 29'

M. Dobre 76'

Y. Benzia 57'

10/23/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Grenoble40%

×Draw29%

Dijon31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenobleExpected goals in this matchDijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.04

Grenoble

1.22

Dijon

1.04

Grenoble creates 17% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 132 away

1.17

creates per match

1.12

0.97

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Grenoble

1.17

Dijon

1.12

allows per match

Grenoble

0.97

Dijon

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par

Dijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Dijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw

69%

Grenoble or Dijon

71%

Draw or Dijon

60%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+

17%

Dijon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals

70%

Grenoble 2+ goals

34%

Grenoble 3+ goals

12%

Dijon 1+ goals

65%

Dijon 2+ goals

28%

Dijon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)

56%

Dijon (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 152 matches

Dijon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.17 + Dijon defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dijon attack 1.12 + Grenoble defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grenoble scores more

40%

level

29%

Dijon scores more

31%

Grenoble at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Benzia

Dijon · M

9.2

Match Events

28'

29'

30'

35'

57'

58'

A. Belmonte← F. Michel

61'

A. Scheidler← M. Le Bihan

73'

76'

79'

87'

87'

D. Henen← A. Abdallah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrenobleDijon

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots24

5Corners5

4Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots24

1On Target8

4Off Target12

1Blocked4

1Inside Box17

5Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

423Total Passes436

322Accurate Passes336

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

4Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Grenoble vs Dijon

Dijon beat Grenoble 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 23, 2021.

Goals: Y. Ravet (29'), Y. Benzia (57'), M. Dobre (76').

Grenoble controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 24.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.

Grenoble vs Dijon — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Grenoble vs Dijon