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Dijon vs Grenoble — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dijon
Dijon
FT
1 – 1
Grenoble
Grenoble
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Complexe Champlevert - Terrain Paul Guérin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dijon64%
×Draw22%
Grenoble14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.83
Grenoble
0.72

Dijon creates 154% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.67
Grenoble
0.20

allows per match

Dijon
1.25
Grenoble
2.00

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
86%
Dijon or Grenoble
78%
Draw or Grenoble
36%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
38%
Grenoble wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
84%
Dijon 2+ goals
54%
Dijon 3+ goals
28%
Grenoble 1+ goals
51%
Grenoble 2+ goals
16%
Grenoble 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
82%
Grenoble (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.67 + Grenoble defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Grenoble attack 0.20 + Dijon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dijon scores more
64%
level
22%
Grenoble scores more
14%

Dijon at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dijon 1–1 Grenoble

Dijon and Grenoble drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2021.

The match was played at Complexe Champlevert - Terrain Paul Guérin in Mâcon.