Gremio 1–1 Godoy Cruz: Result & Stats

Gremio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Godoy Cruz

Joao Pedro 6'

S. Andino 29'

5/13/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gremio39%

×Draw31%

Godoy Cruz30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchGodoy Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.91

Gremio

1.09

Godoy Cruz

0.91

Gremio creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.43

creates per match

1.25

0.57

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Gremio

1.43

Godoy Cruz

1.25

allows per match

Gremio

0.57

Godoy Cruz

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Godoy Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Godoy Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

70%

Gremio or Godoy Cruz

69%

Draw or Godoy Cruz

61%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

16%

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

66%

Gremio 2+ goals

30%

Gremio 3+ goals

10%

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

60%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

23%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

57%

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Godoy Cruz away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.43 + Godoy Cruz defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Godoy Cruz attack 1.25 + Gremio defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gremio scores more

39%

level

31%

Godoy Cruz scores more

30%

Gremio at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Monsalve

Gremio · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

20'

29'

37'

41'

Igor Serrote← Joao Pedro

50'

Joao Lucas←

50'

F. Amuzu← M. Arezo

63'

L. Dupuy← D. Barrea

74'

B. Leyes← A. Auzmendi

75'

F. Rasmussen← L. Quiroz

75'

B. Yanez← F. Altamira

79'

André Henrique

79'

Alysson← C. Olivera

79'

Andre Henrique← Dodi

85'

A. Valverde← S. Andino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioGodoy

Overview

63%Possession37%

18Total Shots16

2Corners1

9Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots16

7On Target5

7Off Target7

4Blocked4

11Inside Box5

7Outside Box11

Passing

63%Possession37%

484Total Passes274

405Accurate Passes196

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1