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Godoy Cruz vs Gremio — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Godoy Cruz
Godoy Cruz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gremio
Gremio
L. Dupuy 87'
A. Auzmendi 64'
A. Aravena 82'
Edenilson 35'
4/24/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Godoy Cruz37%
×Draw28%
Gremio35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Godoy Cruz
1.18
Gremio
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Godoy Cruz
1.50
Gremio
1.00

allows per match

Godoy Cruz
1.25
Gremio
0.86

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.00on par
Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

Gremio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw
65%
Godoy Cruz or Gremio
72%
Draw or Gremio
63%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+
16%
Gremio wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals
69%
Godoy Cruz 2+ goals
33%
Godoy Cruz 3+ goals
12%
Gremio 1+ goals
68%
Gremio 2+ goals
31%
Gremio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)
52%
Gremio (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.50 + Gremio defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Gremio attack 1.00 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more
37%
level
28%
Gremio scores more
35%

Godoy Cruz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
L. ArceGodoy CruzGodoy Cruz · D
7.7

Match Events

20'
Vicente Poggi
35'
Edenilson↳ M. Braithwaite
46'
B. Leyes← V. Poggi
46'
F. Cristaldo← M. Monsalve
55'
Lucas Arce
58'
A. Aravena← Edenilson
60'
A. Auzmendi← J. Perez
60'
L. Pascual← N. Fernandez
64'
A. Auzmendi↳ G. Abrego
69'
G. Cuellar← Dodi
82'
A. Aravena↳ C. Olivera
85'
Igor Serrote← Joao Pedro
86'
L. Dupuy← T. Rossi
86'
B. Yanez← S. Andino
86'
Viery← C. Olivera
87'
L. Dupuy↳ D. Barrea

Possession

60%Godoy

Shots

19Godoy

Pass accuracy

52%Godoy

Statistics

GodoyGremio
Overview
60%Possession40%
19Total Shots7
6Corners3
5Fouls3
Shots
19Total Shots7
4On Target5
10Off Target2
5Blocked0
9Inside Box6
10Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
400Total Passes279
311Accurate Passes197
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls3
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Godoy Cruz vs Gremio

Godoy Cruz and Gremio drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 24, 2025.

Goals: Edenilson (35'), A. Auzmendi (64'), A. Aravena (82'), L. Dupuy (87').

Godoy Cruz controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Mendoza.