Gremio 1–1 Estudiantes L.P.: Result & Stats

Gremio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes L.P.

F. Cristaldo 48'

M. Méndez 83'

6/8/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gremio49%

×Draw28%

Estudiantes L.P.23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.82

Gremio

1.34

Estudiantes L.P.

0.82

Gremio creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.75

creates per match

0.89

0.75

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Gremio

1.75

Estudiantes L.P.

0.89

allows per match

Gremio

0.75

Estudiantes L.P.

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Estudiantes L.P.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

77%

Gremio or Estudiantes L.P.

72%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

51%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

23%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

74%

Gremio 2+ goals

39%

Gremio 3+ goals

15%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

56%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

20%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

68%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.75 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.89 + Gremio defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gremio scores more

49%

level

28%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

23%

Gremio at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Cristaldo

Gremio · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

Javier Correa

15'

Rodrigo Ely

23'

Gastón Benedetti

48'

F. Cristaldo↳ Diego Costa

55'

JP Galvão← Diego Costa

55'

Gustavo Nunes← C. Pavón

66'

J. Sosa← A. Castillo Manyoma

66'

N. Fernández← G. Benedetti

70'

Edwuin Cetré

77'

M. Méndez← J. Correa

77'

F. Zapiola Yamartino← P. Piatti

78'

F. Carballo← Y. Soteldo

78'

Nathan Fernandes← F. Cristaldo

83'

M. Méndez↳ J. Sosa

84'

João Pedro Galvão

84'

Fernando Zuqui

85'

Everton Galdino← Pepê

86'

Walter Kannemann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioEstudiantes

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots15

0.87Expected Goals (xG)0.66

5Corners9

15Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target5

4Off Target6

2Blocked4

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

289Total Passes373

218Accurate Passes296

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.69Goals Prevented0.69

Discipline

15Fouls18

3Yellow Cards4