Estudiantes L.P. 0–1 Gremio: Result & Stats

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gremio

Nathan Fernandes 75'

4/23/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.46%

×Draw28%

Gremio26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.95

Estudiantes L.P.

1.36

Gremio

0.95

Estudiantes L.P. creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

1.53

creates per match

1.19

0.71

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

1.53

Gremio

1.19

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.71

Gremio

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

74%

Estudiantes L.P. or Gremio

72%

Draw or Gremio

54%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

22%

Gremio wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

74%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

39%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

16%

Gremio 1+ goals

61%

Gremio 2+ goals

25%

Gremio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

64%

Gremio (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.53 + Gremio defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gremio attack 1.19 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

46%

level

28%

Gremio scores more

26%

Estudiantes L.P. at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Ascacíbar

Estudiantes L.P. · M

7.5

Match Events

23'

32'

35'

36'

45+2'

59'

62'

G. Carrillo← J. Correa

63'

66'

66'

68'

69'

71'

71'

71'

Nathan Fernandes← Everton Galdino

71'

Gustavo Nunes← Y. Soteldo

75'

Nathan Fernandes↳ Gustavo Nunes

87'

Gustavo Martins← JP Galvão

90'

Fábio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstudiantesGremio

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots9

0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.53

8Corners4

18Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target3

7Blocked3

9Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

480Total Passes309

395Accurate Passes246

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls20

2Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0