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Gremio vs Deportivo Riestra — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Gremio
Gremio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
F. Amuzu 87'
4/14/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gremio64%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Riestra13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio
1.71
Deportivo Riestra
0.62

Gremio creates 176% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gremio
1.43
Deportivo Riestra
0.67

allows per match

Gremio
0.57
Deportivo Riestra
2.00

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par
Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Deportivo Riestra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gremio or draw
87%
Gremio or Deportivo Riestra
77%
Draw or Deportivo Riestra
36%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+
37%
Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals
82%
Gremio 2+ goals
51%
Gremio 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
46%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
13%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)
83%
Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.43 + Deportivo Riestra defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.67 + Gremio defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gremio scores more
64%
level
23%
Deportivo Riestra scores more
13%

Gremio at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
F. AmuzuGremioGremio · F
7.9

Match Events

-5'
Gabriel Grando
46'
Arthur Melo← Dodi
46'
F. Amuzu← Tete
46'
J. Enamorado← Gabriel Mec
47'
Juan Nardoni
55'
A. Alonso← G. Flores
58'
Carlos Vinicius← M. Braithwaite
74'
R. Gallo← R. Sayavedra
74'
P. Madero← G. Obredor
79'
M. Monsalve← Fabian Balbuena
82'
Miguel Monsalve
84'
A. Dramisino← A. Stringa
87'
F. Amuzu↳ J. Enamorado
89'
Carlos Vinícius
90+6'
José Enamorado
90+7'
Nicolas Watson
90+2'
Alejo Dramisino

Possession

82%Gremio

Shots

17Gremio

Pass accuracy

63%Gremio

Statistics

GremioDeportivo
Overview
82%Possession18%
17Total Shots3
0.60Expected Goals (xG)0.05
8Corners2
10Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots3
6On Target1
5Off Target2
6Blocked1
4Inside Box1
13Outside Box2
Passing
82%Possession18%
665Total Passes145
603Accurate Passes78
91%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
-0.31Goals Prevented-0.31
Discipline
10Fouls8
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Gremio 1–0 Deportivo Riestra

Gremio beat Deportivo Riestra 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 14, 2026.

Goals: F. Amuzu (87').

Gremio controlled possession (82%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre.