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Deportivo Riestra vs Gremio — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gremio
Gremio
M. Braithwaite 73'
F. Amuzu 59'
Carlos Vinicius 30' (pen)
5/5/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deportivo Riestra24%
×Draw31%
Gremio45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
0.77
Gremio
1.17

Gremio creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.67
Gremio
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
1.33
Gremio
0.86

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par
Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Gremio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
55%
Deportivo Riestra or Gremio
69%
Draw or Gremio
76%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
7%
Gremio wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
4%
Gremio 1+ goals
69%
Gremio 2+ goals
33%
Gremio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
35%
Gremio (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.67 + Gremio defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Gremio attack 1.00 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
24%
level
31%
Gremio scores more
45%

Gremio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
Gabriel MecGremioGremio · F
8.2

Match Events

8'
Wagner Leonardo
25'
Fabian Balbuena← Wagner Leonardo
30'
Carlos ViniciusPenalty
43'
Viery
46'
P. Ramirez← A. Stringa
46'
J. Herrera← G. Flores
46'
B. Perez← N. Watson
46'
E. Noriega← L. Perez
59'
F. Amuzu↳ Gabriel Mec
64'
Tiago← Willian
65'
M. Braithwaite← F. Amuzu
66'
Cristian Paz
66'
M. Smarra← A. Diaz
72'
Facundo Miño
73'
M. Braithwaite↳ C. Pavon
75'
Caio Paulista← Pedro Gabriel
90+1'
N. Sansotre← F. Mino

Possession

40%Deportivo

Shots

13Deportivo

Pass accuracy

45%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoGremio
Overview
40%Possession60%
13Total Shots12
0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.66
6Corners3
25Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots12
1On Target5
8Off Target6
4Blocked1
7Inside Box3
6Outside Box9
Passing
40%Possession60%
234Total Passes374
139Accurate Passes274
59%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
0.04Goals Prevented0.04
Discipline
25Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportivo Riestra vs Gremio

Gremio beat Deportivo Riestra 3-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 5, 2026.

Goals: Carlos Vinicius (30' pen), F. Amuzu (59'), M. Braithwaite (73').

Gremio controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegain in Buenos Aires.