Gremio 2–3 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico-MG

F. Cristaldo 41'

M. Braithwaite 32'

E. Vargas 90+6'

B. Palacios 90+5' (pen)

Gustavo Scarpa 73' (pen)

9/1/2024

Serie A · Round 25Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Gremio46%

×Draw26%

Atletico-MG27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.04

Gremio

1.45

Atletico-MG

1.04

Gremio creates 39% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.57

creates per match

0.93

1.15

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gremio

1.57

Atletico-MG

0.93

allows per match

Gremio

1.15

Atletico-MG

1.33

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Gremio+0.10scores more

Atletico-MG-0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

73%

Gremio or Atletico-MG

74%

Draw or Atletico-MG

54%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

23%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

77%

Gremio 2+ goals

42%

Gremio 3+ goals

18%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

65%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

28%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

63%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.15 · 24 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.33 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.57 + Atletico-MG defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico-MG attack 0.93 + Gremio defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gremio scores more

46%

level

26%

Atletico-MG scores more

27%

Gremio at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Marchesín

Gremio · G

9.2

Match Events

20'

Gustavo Martins

29'

Bernard

32'

M. Braithwaite↳ W. Kannemann

39'

41'

46'

46'

59'

Edenílson← M. Monsalve

59'

Natã← M. Braithwaite

67'

Rubens← Bernard

68'

Cadu← Deyverson

71'

Walter Kannemann

73'

Gustavo ScarpaPenalty

74'

Nathan Fernandes← F. Cristaldo

78'

Brahian Palacios

88'

Alan Kardec← Gustavo Scarpa

90'

Geromel← Nathan Fernandes

90+1'

Ronald← Dodi

90+5'

B. PalaciosPenalty

90+6'

E. Vargas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioAtletico-MG

Overview

28%Possession72%

11Total Shots27

2.11Expected Goals (xG)2.80

5Corners9

11Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots27

5On Target13

5Off Target8

1Blocked6

8Inside Box15

3Outside Box12

Passing

28%Possession72%

208Total Passes541

158Accurate Passes483

76%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

10Saves2

0.05Goals Prevented0.05

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Serie A: Gremio 2–3 Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG beat Gremio 3-2 in Serie A on September 1, 2024.

Goals: M. Braithwaite (32'), F. Cristaldo (41'), Gustavo Scarpa (73' pen), B. Palacios (90+5' pen), E. Vargas (90+6').

Atletico-MG controlled possession (72%) and registered 27 shots to 11.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Gremio vs Atletico-MG — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Gremio 2–3 Atletico-MG