Gremio 2–0 Atletico Grau: Result & Stats

Gremio

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Grau

C. Olivera 67'

M. Arezo 37'

4/8/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gremio56%

×Draw26%

Atletico Grau19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.78

Gremio

1.55

Atletico Grau

0.78

Gremio creates 99% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.43

creates per match

1.00

0.57

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Gremio

1.43

Atletico Grau

1.00

allows per match

Gremio

0.57

Atletico Grau

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

81%

Gremio or Atletico Grau

74%

Draw or Atletico Grau

44%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

29%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

79%

Gremio 2+ goals

46%

Gremio 3+ goals

20%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

54%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

18%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

75%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.43 + Atletico Grau defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atletico Grau attack 1.00 + Gremio defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gremio scores more

56%

level

26%

Atletico Grau scores more

19%

Gremio at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Villasanti

Gremio · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

22'

30'

37'

46'

67'

C. Olivera↳ M. Villasanti

69'

Dodi← Edenilson

69'

Andre Henrique← C. Pavon

76'

M. Monsalve← F. Cristaldo

76'

76'

79'

83'

90'

J. Reyes← J. Rostaing

90+4'

Herrera Joel← J. Garro

90+4'

B. Garcia← R. Guarderas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioAtletico

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots7

4Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots7

8On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

8Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

555Total Passes357

461Accurate Passes273

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Gremio vs Atletico Grau

Gremio beat Atletico Grau 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Arezo (37'), C. Olivera (67').

Gremio controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre.

Gremio vs Atletico Grau — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Gremio vs Atletico Grau