Atletico Grau 0–0 Gremio: Result & Stats

Atletico Grau

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gremio

5/8/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico Grau24%

×Draw31%

Gremio45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GrauExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.17

Atletico Grau

0.77

Gremio

1.17

Gremio creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Atletico Grau

0.67

Gremio

1.00

allows per match

Atletico Grau

1.33

Gremio

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw

55%

Atletico Grau or Gremio

69%

Draw or Gremio

76%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

7%

Gremio wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

54%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

18%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

4%

Gremio 1+ goals

69%

Gremio 2+ goals

33%

Gremio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

35%

Gremio (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 0.67 + Gremio defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Gremio attack 1.00 + Atletico Grau defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Grau scores more

24%

level

31%

Gremio scores more

45%

Gremio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Lucas Esteves

Gremio · D

8.3

Match Events

15'

Fabio Rojas

46'

C. Olivera← Luan Candido

63'

Ronald← G. Cuellar

63'

M. Monsalve← F. Cristaldo

71'

C. Olivares← T. Sandoval

75'

Andre Henrique← Alysson

78'

A. Vasquez← N. Bandiera

82'

J. Reyes← F. Rojas

90'

Aldair Vasquez

90+5'

Jemerson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoGremio

Overview

37%Possession63%

4Total Shots12

2Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

4Total Shots12

0On Target2

2Off Target5

2Blocked5

3Inside Box7

1Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

341Total Passes584

255Accurate Passes513

75%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1