Gremio 1–1 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Gremio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

Diego Souza 90+11' (pen)

W. Kannemann 53' (OG)

10/23/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gremio53%

×Draw25%

America de Cali22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.96

Gremio

1.63

America de Cali

0.96

Gremio creates 70% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Gremio

1.75

America de Cali

1.17

allows per match

Gremio

0.75

America de Cali

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

78%

Gremio or America de Cali

75%

Draw or America de Cali

47%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

28%

America de Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

80%

Gremio 2+ goals

48%

Gremio 3+ goals

22%

America de Cali 1+ goals

62%

America de Cali 2+ goals

25%

America de Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

70%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.75 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

America de Cali attack 1.17 + Gremio defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gremio scores more

53%

level

25%

America de Cali scores more

22%

Gremio at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Diego Souza

Gremio · F

7.9

Match Events

4'

13'

14'

32'

42'

46'

Luiz Fernando← L. Orejuela

46'

Isaque← Lucas Silva

53'

W. KannemannOwn goal

64'

J. Arias← J. Pérez

68'

Thaciano← Robinho

68'

Éverton← Maicon

75'

F. Jaramillo← C. Sierra

77'

Ferreira← Pepê

79'

Thaciano

85'

Y. Cabrera← S. Moreno

90'

90'

90'

90'

90+11'

Diego SouzaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioAmerica

Overview

59%Possession41%

8Total Shots8

2Corners1

16Fouls26

Shots

8Total Shots8

1On Target2

6Off Target4

1Blocked2

4Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

472Total Passes319

381Accurate Passes237

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls26

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Gremio 1–1 America de Cali

Gremio and America de Cali drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on October 23, 2020.

Goals: W. Kannemann (53' o.g.), Diego Souza (90+11' pen).

Gremio controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Gremio vs America de Cali — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Gremio 1–1 America de Cali