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America de Cali vs Gremio — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gremio
Gremio
Matheus Henrique 50'
Victor Ferraz 15'
3/4/2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

America de Cali28%
×Draw28%
Gremio44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.01
Gremio
1.34

Gremio creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

America de Cali
0.83
Gremio
1.19

allows per match

America de Cali
1.50
Gremio
1.19

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Gremio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
56%
America de Cali or Gremio
72%
Draw or Gremio
72%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
10%
Gremio wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
64%
America de Cali 2+ goals
27%
America de Cali 3+ goals
8%
Gremio 1+ goals
74%
Gremio 2+ goals
39%
Gremio 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
39%
Gremio (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 0.83 + Gremio defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Gremio attack 1.19 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America de Cali scores more
28%
level
28%
Gremio scores more
44%

Gremio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
VanderleiGremioGremio
7.9

Match Events

15'
Victor Ferraz↳ Diego Souza
32'
Caio Henrique
46'
Thaciano← Maicon
50'
Matheus Henrique↳ Éverton
68'
J. Pérez← C. Arrieta
75'
J. Arias← M. Pisano
75'
Bruno Cortez← Matheus Henrique
81'
Paulo Miranda← Pedro Geromel
85'
Lucas Silva

Possession

55%America

Shots

15America

Pass accuracy

51%America

Statistics

AmericaGremio
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots10
10Corners3
10Fouls7
Shots
15Total Shots10
5On Target3
7Off Target3
3Blocked4
7Inside Box4
8Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
526Total Passes441
437Accurate Passes350
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Gremio

Gremio beat America de Cali 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 4, 2020.

Goals: Victor Ferraz (15'), Matheus Henrique (50').

America de Cali controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.