Gremio 1–1 Alianza Lima: Result & Stats

Gremio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Lima

Gustavo Martins 56'

H. Barcos 90'

7/24/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Knockout Round Play-offsArena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gremio47%

×Draw27%

Alianza Lima26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.95

Gremio

1.38

Alianza Lima

0.95

Gremio creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.43

creates per match

1.33

0.57

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gremio

1.43

Alianza Lima

1.33

allows per match

Gremio

0.57

Alianza Lima

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

74%

Gremio or Alianza Lima

73%

Draw or Alianza Lima

53%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

22%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

75%

Gremio 2+ goals

40%

Gremio 3+ goals

16%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

61%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

25%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

64%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.43 + Alianza Lima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alianza Lima attack 1.33 + Gremio defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gremio scores more

47%

level

27%

Alianza Lima scores more

26%

Gremio at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

53

Gustavo Martins

Alianza Lima

8.3

Match Events

4'

10'

36'

42'

46'

Andre Henrique← C. Olivera

56'

Gustavo Martins↳ Marlon

57'

Edenilson← M. Villasanti

59'

André Henrique

68'

H. Barcos← Paolo Guerrero

69'

J. Castillo← S. Pena

74'

C. Pavon← Gustavo Martins

82'

J. Archimbaud← K. Quevedo

82'

F. Amuzu← Alysson

90+4'

90+5'

90+1'

90+1'

90+2'

J. Estrada← E. Castillo

90'

H. Barcos↳ F. Gaibor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioAlianza

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots5

10Corners2

5Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots5

4On Target2

8Off Target3

3Blocked0

10Inside Box2

5Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

442Total Passes333

360Accurate Passes238

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls13

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Gremio 1–1 Alianza Lima

Gremio and Alianza Lima drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 24, 2025.

Goals: Gustavo Martins (56'), H. Barcos (90').

Gremio controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre.

Gremio vs Alianza Lima — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Gremio 1–1 Alianza Lima