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Alianza Lima vs Gremio — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio
Gremio
E. Castillo 61'
G. Gentile 59'
7/17/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Knockout Round Play-offsEstadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alianza Lima50%
×Draw33%
Gremio17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.09
Gremio
0.50

Alianza Lima creates 118% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.33
Gremio
1.00

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.00
Gremio
0.86

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Gremio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
83%
Alianza Lima or Gremio
67%
Draw or Gremio
50%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
21%
Gremio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
66%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
30%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
10%
Gremio 1+ goals
39%
Gremio 2+ goals
9%
Gremio 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
75%
Gremio (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.33 + Gremio defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Gremio attack 1.00 + Alianza Lima defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
50%
level
33%
Gremio scores more
17%

Alianza Lima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
S. PenaAlianza LimaAlianza Lima · M
8.3

Match Events

5'
Wagner Leonardo
23'
S. Pena← A. Cantero
33'
Edenilson
56'
Renzo Garcés
56'
G. Gentile← K. Quevedo
57'
P. Cari← F. Gaibor
59'
G. Gentile
61'
E. Castillo↳ S. Pena
62'
Eryc Castillo
66'
Alex Santana← M. Villasanti
66'
M. Monsalve← Edenilson
71'
F. Amuzu← Andre Henrique
71'
C. Pavon← A. Aravena
76'
H. Barcos← Paolo Guerrero
78'
Ronald← Alysson

Possession

57%Alianza

Shots

23Alianza

Pass accuracy

51%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaGremio
Overview
57%Possession43%
23Total Shots8
9Corners4
13Fouls5
Shots
23Total Shots8
8On Target3
11Off Target4
4Blocked1
12Inside Box3
11Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
467Total Passes367
399Accurate Passes299
85%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls5
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Alianza Lima vs Gremio

Alianza Lima beat Gremio 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 17, 2025.

Goals: G. Gentile (59'), E. Castillo (61').

Alianza Lima controlled possession (57%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.