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Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Foz Cataratas W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Foz Cataratas W
Foz Cataratas W
4/25/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W32%
×Draw27%
Foz Cataratas W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.15
Foz Cataratas W
1.32

Foz Cataratas W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.00
Foz Cataratas W
1.00

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.64
Foz Cataratas W
1.29

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par
Foz Cataratas W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Foz Cataratas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw
59%
Gremio Osasco Audax W or Foz Cataratas W
73%
Draw or Foz Cataratas W
68%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
13%
Foz Cataratas W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
68%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
32%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
11%
Foz Cataratas W 1+ goals
73%
Foz Cataratas W 2+ goals
38%
Foz Cataratas W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
44%
Foz Cataratas W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Foz Cataratas W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Foz Cataratas W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Foz Cataratas W attack 1.00 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
32%
level
27%
Foz Cataratas W scores more
41%

Foz Cataratas W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Foz Cataratas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Foz Cataratas W

Foz Cataratas W beat Gremio Osasco Audax W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 25, 2018.