Foz Cataratas W 1–2 Gremio Osasco Audax W

Foz Cataratas W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gremio Osasco Audax W

8/22/2018

Brasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Foz Cataratas W51%

×Draw24%

Gremio Osasco Audax W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foz Cataratas WExpected goals in this matchGremio Osasco Audax W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.13

Foz Cataratas W

1.70

Gremio Osasco Audax W

1.13

Foz Cataratas W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

0.71

creates per match

0.82

1.43

allows per match

2.68

creates per match

Foz Cataratas W

0.71

Gremio Osasco Audax W

0.82

allows per match

Foz Cataratas W

1.43

Gremio Osasco Audax W

2.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foz Cataratas W+0.00on par

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz Cataratas W ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Foz Cataratas W or draw

75%

Foz Cataratas W or Gremio Osasco Audax W

76%

Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax W

49%

Winning margin

Foz Cataratas W wins by 2+

27%

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Foz Cataratas W 1+ goals

82%

Foz Cataratas W 2+ goals

51%

Foz Cataratas W 3+ goals

24%

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals

68%

Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals

31%

Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Foz Cataratas W (draw refunded)

67%

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz Cataratas W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz Cataratas W attack 0.71 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.70

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 0.82 + Foz Cataratas W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Foz Cataratas W scores more

51%

level

24%

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more

25%

Foz Cataratas W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Foz Cataratas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff