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Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Ferroviaria W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferroviaria W
Ferroviaria W
3/27/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti (Osasco, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W26%
×Draw26%
Ferroviaria W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.04
Ferroviaria W
1.54

Ferroviaria W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 71 away

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.00
Ferroviaria W
1.45

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.64
Ferroviaria W
1.08

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par
Ferroviaria W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Ferroviaria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw
51%
Gremio Osasco Audax W or Ferroviaria W
74%
Draw or Ferroviaria W
74%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
9%
Ferroviaria W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
65%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
28%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
9%
Ferroviaria W 1+ goals
79%
Ferroviaria W 2+ goals
45%
Ferroviaria W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
34%
Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Ferroviaria W away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Ferroviaria W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ferroviaria W attack 1.45 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
26%
level
26%
Ferroviaria W scores more
49%

Ferroviaria W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Ferroviaria W

Gremio Osasco Audax W and Ferroviaria W drew 0-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti (Osasco, São Paulo).