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Ferroviaria W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ferroviaria W
Ferroviaria W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
2/8/2020Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ferroviaria W70%
×Draw18%
Gremio Osasco Audax W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviaria W
2.24
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.81

Ferroviaria W creates 177% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ferroviaria W
1.80
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.82

allows per match

Ferroviaria W
0.80
Gremio Osasco Audax W
2.68

finishing

Ferroviaria W+0.00on par
Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviaria W ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ferroviaria W or draw
88%
Ferroviaria W or Gremio Osasco Audax W
82%
Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax W
30%

Winning margin

Ferroviaria W wins by 2+
46%
Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ferroviaria W 1+ goals
89%
Ferroviaria W 2+ goals
65%
Ferroviaria W 3+ goals
38%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
56%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
19%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)
85%
Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviaria W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 79 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviaria W attack 1.80 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.24

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 0.82 + Ferroviaria W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ferroviaria W scores more
70%
level
18%
Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
12%

Ferroviaria W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Ferroviaria W 4–0 Gremio Osasco Audax W

Ferroviaria W beat Gremio Osasco Audax W 4-0 in Brasileiro Women on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros in Araraquara, São Paulo.