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Grêmio Maringá vs AA Iguaçu — Paranaense - 2 2020

Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
Simplicio 87'
Cassiano 51'
P. Henrique 31'
Firmino 9', 4'
6/3/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Regional Willie Davids

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Grêmio Maringá18%
×Draw20%
AA Iguaçu61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grêmio Maringá
1.05
AA Iguaçu
2.11

AA Iguaçu creates 101% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Grêmio Maringá
0.75
AA Iguaçu
1.22

allows per match

Grêmio Maringá
3.00
AA Iguaçu
1.35

finishing

Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par
AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Maringá ↓

AA Iguaçu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Grêmio Maringá or draw
39%
Grêmio Maringá or AA Iguaçu
80%
Draw or AA Iguaçu
82%

Winning margin

Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
6%
AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
65%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
28%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
9%
AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
88%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
62%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
23%
AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Maringá at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

AA Iguaçu away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.75 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.05

AA Iguaçu attack 1.22 + Grêmio Maringá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Grêmio Maringá scores more
18%
level
20%
AA Iguaçu scores more
61%

AA Iguaçu at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Firmino
9'
Firmino
31'
P. Henrique
51'
Cassiano
87'
Simplicio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Grêmio Maringá 0–5 AA Iguaçu

AA Iguaçu beat Grêmio Maringá 5-0 in Paranaense - 2 on June 3, 2024.

Goals: Firmino (4', 9'), P. Henrique (31'), Cassiano (51'), Simplicio (87').

The match was played at Estádio Regional Willie Davids in Maringá, Paraná.