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AA Iguaçu vs Grêmio Maringá — Paranaense - 2 2020

AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
Vandinho 29', 10'
Gabriel 12'
Vinicius 18'
6/18/2023Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AA Iguaçu62%
×Draw22%
Grêmio Maringá16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AA Iguaçu
1.91
Grêmio Maringá
0.85

AA Iguaçu creates 125% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

creates per match

AA Iguaçu
1.21
Grêmio Maringá
0.70

allows per match

AA Iguaçu
1.00
Grêmio Maringá
2.60

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par
Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Grêmio Maringá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw
84%
AA Iguaçu or Grêmio Maringá
78%
Draw or Grêmio Maringá
38%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
37%
Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
85%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
57%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
30%
Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
57%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
21%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
79%
Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Grêmio Maringá away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.21 + Grêmio Maringá defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.70 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more
62%
level
22%
Grêmio Maringá scores more
16%

AA Iguaçu at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Vandinho
12'
Gabriel
18'
Vinicius
29'
Vandinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: AA Iguaçu 3–1 Grêmio Maringá

AA Iguaçu beat Grêmio Maringá 3-1 in Paranaense - 2 on June 18, 2023.

Goals: Vandinho (10', 29'), Gabriel (12'), Vinicius (18').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira in União da Vitória, Paraná.