Greifswalder FC vs Tasmania Berlin

Greifswalder FC

Preview

13:00

Tasmania Berlin

3/7/2027

Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 24

81%

Greifswalder FC

model favours

81%13%5%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

36%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Greifswalder FC81%

×Draw13%

Tasmania Berlin5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greifswalder FCExpected goals in this matchTasmania Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.50

Greifswalder FC

2.54

Tasmania Berlin

0.50

Greifswalder FC creates 408% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 3 away

1.42

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Greifswalder FC

1.42

Tasmania Berlin

0.00

allows per match

Greifswalder FC

1.00

Tasmania Berlin

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Tasmania Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw

95%

Greifswalder FC or Tasmania Berlin

87%

Draw or Tasmania Berlin

19%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

59%

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

92%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

72%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

46%

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

39%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

9%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

94%

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + Tasmania Berlin defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.54

Tasmania Berlin attack 0.00 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more

81%

level

13%

Tasmania Berlin scores more

5%

Greifswalder FC at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

90% of Tasmania Berlin’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Tasmania Berlin score first in only 20% of matches
Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
Tasmania Berlin have scored in 10 games running
Greifswalder FC and Tasmania Berlin have never met before
Both teams score in 80% of Tasmania Berlin’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

FC

DLDWW

Berlin

LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff