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Greifswalder FC vs Neustrelitz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Greifswalder FC83%
×Draw10%
Neustrelitz7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
3.72
Neustrelitz
1.05

Greifswalder FC creates 254% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
2.64
Neustrelitz
1.20

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
0.91
Neustrelitz
4.80

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Neustrelitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
93%
Greifswalder FC or Neustrelitz
90%
Draw or Neustrelitz
17%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
67%
Neustrelitz wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
97%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
88%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
69%
Neustrelitz 1+ goals
65%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
28%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
93%
Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.20, concedes 4.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 2.64 + Neustrelitz defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 3.72

Neustrelitz attack 1.20 + Greifswalder FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
83%
level
10%
Neustrelitz scores more
7%

Greifswalder FC at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Greifswalder
Neustrelitz
M. Zschiesche
Manager: M. Zschiesche
J. Buder
Manager: J. Buder

Friendlies Clubs: Greifswalder FC 5–3 Neustrelitz

Greifswalder FC beat Neustrelitz 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.