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Greifswalder FC vs Neustrelitz — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
CANC
12:00
Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
4/25/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Greifswalder FC50%
×Draw23%
Neustrelitz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.79
Neustrelitz
1.26

Greifswalder FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.95
Neustrelitz
1.47

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.05
Neustrelitz
1.64

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Neustrelitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
73%
Greifswalder FC or Neustrelitz
77%
Draw or Neustrelitz
50%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
27%
Neustrelitz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
83%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
53%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
26%
Neustrelitz 1+ goals
72%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
36%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
65%
Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.95 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
50%
level
23%
Neustrelitz scores more
27%

Greifswalder FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC face Neustrelitz (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Greifswalder FC hosting Neustrelitz. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Greifswalder FC host Neustrelitz at Volksstadion Greifswald.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.