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Greifswalder FC vs Hertha BSC II — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
Preview
13:00
Hertha BSC II
Hertha BSC II
12/13/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 20
Big match
51%
Greifswalder FC
model favours
51%24%25%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Greifswalder FC51%
×Draw24%
Hertha BSC II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.67
Hertha BSC II
1.10

Greifswalder FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
Hertha BSC II
1.21

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
Hertha BSC II
1.93

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Hertha BSC II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Hertha BSC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
75%
Greifswalder FC or Hertha BSC II
76%
Draw or Hertha BSC II
49%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
27%
Hertha BSC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
81%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
50%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
23%
Hertha BSC II 1+ goals
67%
Hertha BSC II 2+ goals
30%
Hertha BSC II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
67%
Hertha BSC II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Hertha BSC II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + Hertha BSC II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hertha BSC II attack 1.21 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
51%
level
24%
Hertha BSC II scores more
25%

Greifswalder FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Greifswalder FC sit 2, Hertha BSC II 15 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DLDWW
II
WLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC vs Hertha BSC II — Match Preview

Greifswalder FC face Hertha BSC II on December 13, 2026 in this Regionalliga - Nordost fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.