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Greifswalder FC vs BSC Süd 05 — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
CANC
12:00
BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
6/5/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 36Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Greifswalder FC62%
×Draw21%
BSC Süd 0517%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.95
BSC Süd 05
0.91

Greifswalder FC creates 114% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.95
BSC Süd 05
0.76

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.05
BSC Süd 05
1.95

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

BSC Süd 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
83%
Greifswalder FC or BSC Süd 05
79%
Draw or BSC Süd 05
38%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
37%
BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
86%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
58%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
31%
BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
60%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
23%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
78%
BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.95 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.95

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
62%
level
21%
BSC Süd 05 scores more
17%

Greifswalder FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC vs BSC Süd 05 — Match Preview

Greifswalder FC face BSC Süd 05 on June 5, 2022 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Greifswalder FC host BSC Süd 05 at Volksstadion Greifswald.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.