BSC Süd 05 0–3 Greifswalder FC: Result & Stats

BSC Süd 05

FT

0 – 3

Greifswalder FC

8/22/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 2Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Süd 0517%

×Draw21%

Greifswalder FC62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Süd 05Expected goals in this matchGreifswalder FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

2.04

BSC Süd 05

0.95

Greifswalder FC

2.04

Greifswalder FC creates 115% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

0.85

creates per match

2.14

1.95

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

BSC Süd 05

0.85

Greifswalder FC

2.14

allows per match

BSC Süd 05

1.95

Greifswalder FC

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

Greifswalder FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw

38%

BSC Süd 05 or Greifswalder FC

79%

Draw or Greifswalder FC

83%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+

6%

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals

61%

BSC Süd 05 2+ goals

25%

BSC Süd 05 3+ goals

7%

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

87%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

60%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)

21%

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Greifswalder FC attack 2.14 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more

17%

level

21%

Greifswalder FC scores more

62%

Greifswalder FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff