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Greifswalder FC vs BFC Preussen — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
D. Vogt 42'
N. Brandt 80'
10/3/2025Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 11Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Greifswalder FC36%
×Draw26%
BFC Preussen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.29
BFC Preussen
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 6 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
BFC Preussen
1.67

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
BFC Preussen
1.17

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
62%
Greifswalder FC or BFC Preussen
74%
Draw or BFC Preussen
64%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
16%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
72%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
37%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
14%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
74%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
38%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
49%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + BFC Preussen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
36%
level
26%
BFC Preussen scores more
38%

BFC Preussen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "BFC Preussen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
D. Vogt
80'
N. Brandt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greifswalder FC vs BFC Preussen

Greifswalder FC and BFC Preussen drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Nordost on October 3, 2025.

Goals: D. Vogt (42'), N. Brandt (80').

The match was played at Volksstadion Greifswald in Greifswald.