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BFC Preussen vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
4/5/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 28Preußenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

BFC Preussen36%
×Draw24%
Greifswalder FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Preussen
1.53
Greifswalder FC
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

creates per match

BFC Preussen
1.67
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

BFC Preussen
2.17
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

BFC Preussen+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Preussen ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BFC Preussen or draw
59%
BFC Preussen or Greifswalder FC
76%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
64%

Winning margin

BFC Preussen wins by 2+
17%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

BFC Preussen 1+ goals
78%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
45%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
20%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
81%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
49%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
47%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Preussen at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + BFC Preussen defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BFC Preussen scores more
36%
level
24%
Greifswalder FC scores more
41%

Greifswalder FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Nordost: BFC Preussen 0–0 Greifswalder FC

BFC Preussen and Greifswalder FC drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Nordost on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Preußenstadion in Berlin.