Green Fuel 1–0 Cranborne Bullets: Result & Stats

Green Fuel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cranborne Bullets

10/8/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 26GreenFuel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Green Fuel47%

×Draw30%

Cranborne Bullets23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green FuelExpected goals in this matchCranborne Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.73

Green Fuel

1.20

Cranborne Bullets

0.73

Green Fuel creates 64% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.08

creates per match

0.71

0.75

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Green Fuel

1.08

Cranborne Bullets

0.71

allows per match

Green Fuel

0.75

Cranborne Bullets

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Fuel+0.00on par

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Fuel ↓

Cranborne Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Green Fuel or draw

77%

Green Fuel or Cranborne Bullets

70%

Draw or Cranborne Bullets

53%

Winning margin

Green Fuel wins by 2+

21%

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Green Fuel 1+ goals

70%

Green Fuel 2+ goals

34%

Green Fuel 3+ goals

12%

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals

52%

Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals

17%

Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Green Fuel (draw refunded)

68%

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Fuel at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 51 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Fuel attack 1.08 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Green Fuel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Green Fuel scores more

47%

level

30%

Cranborne Bullets scores more

23%

Green Fuel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Green Fuel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff