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Cranborne Bullets vs Green Fuel — Premier Soccer League 2026

Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Green Fuel
Green Fuel
5/12/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 9National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cranborne Bullets39%
×Draw34%
Green Fuel27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cranborne Bullets
0.95
Green Fuel
0.73

Cranborne Bullets creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Cranborne Bullets
0.65
Green Fuel
0.55

allows per match

Cranborne Bullets
0.91
Green Fuel
1.24

finishing

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par
Green Fuel+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cranborne Bullets ↓

Green Fuel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cranborne Bullets or draw
73%
Cranborne Bullets or Green Fuel
66%
Draw or Green Fuel
61%

Winning margin

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
15%
Green Fuel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
61%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
25%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
7%
Green Fuel 1+ goals
52%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
17%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
59%
Green Fuel (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cranborne Bullets at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Green Fuel away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.65 + Green Fuel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.95

Green Fuel attack 0.55 + Cranborne Bullets defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cranborne Bullets scores more
39%
level
34%
Green Fuel scores more
27%

Cranborne Bullets at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cranborne Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Cranborne Bullets 1–0 Green Fuel

Cranborne Bullets beat Green Fuel 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.