Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Green Commandos vs GFE 105 — Super League 2018

Green Commandos
Green Commandos
FT
4 – 1
GFE 105
GFE 105
9/1/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Green Commandos51%
×Draw24%
GFE 10525%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Commandos
1.67
GFE 105
1.08

Green Commandos creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Green Commandos
1.39
GFE 105
0.50

allows per match

Green Commandos
1.67
GFE 105
1.94

finishing

Green Commandos+0.00on par
GFE 105+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Commandos ↓

GFE 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Green Commandos or draw
75%
Green Commandos or GFE 105
76%
Draw or GFE 105
49%

Winning margin

Green Commandos wins by 2+
27%
GFE 105 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Green Commandos 1+ goals
81%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
50%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
23%
GFE 105 1+ goals
66%
GFE 105 2+ goals
29%
GFE 105 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Green Commandos (draw refunded)
67%
GFE 105 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

GFE 105 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Commandos attack 1.39 + GFE 105 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

GFE 105 attack 0.50 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Green Commandos scores more
51%
level
24%
GFE 105 scores more
25%

Green Commandos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Green Commandos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Green Commandos 4–1 GFE 105

Green Commandos beat GFE 105 4-1 in Super League on September 1, 2018.