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GFE 105 vs Green Commandos — Super League 2018

GFE 105
GFE 105
FT
1 – 3
Green Commandos
Green Commandos
4/8/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

GFE 10544%
×Draw29%
Green Commandos27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFE 105
1.27
Green Commandos
0.93

GFE 105 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

GFE 105
0.88
Green Commandos
0.80

allows per match

GFE 105
1.06
Green Commandos
1.67

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par
Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

Green Commandos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw
73%
GFE 105 or Green Commandos
71%
Draw or Green Commandos
56%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+
20%
Green Commandos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals
72%
GFE 105 2+ goals
36%
GFE 105 3+ goals
14%
Green Commandos 1+ goals
61%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
24%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)
62%
Green Commandos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.88 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Green Commandos attack 0.80 + GFE 105 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GFE 105 scores more
44%
level
29%
Green Commandos scores more
27%

GFE 105 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GFE 105 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GFE 105 vs Green Commandos

Green Commandos beat GFE 105 3-1 in Super League on April 8, 2018.