Green Commandos 1–1 Coast Stima: Result & Stats

Green Commandos

FT

1 – 1

Coast Stima

2/11/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Green Commandos41%

×Draw26%

Coast Stima33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green CommandosExpected goals in this matchCoast Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

Green Commandos

1.39

Coast Stima

1.23

Green Commandos creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.39

creates per match

0.78

1.67

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Green Commandos

1.39

Coast Stima

0.78

allows per match

Green Commandos

1.67

Coast Stima

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Commandos+0.00on par

Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Commandos ↓

Coast Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Green Commandos or draw

67%

Green Commandos or Coast Stima

74%

Draw or Coast Stima

59%

Winning margin

Green Commandos wins by 2+

19%

Coast Stima wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Green Commandos 1+ goals

75%

Green Commandos 2+ goals

40%

Green Commandos 3+ goals

16%

Coast Stima 1+ goals

71%

Coast Stima 2+ goals

35%

Coast Stima 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Green Commandos (draw refunded)

55%

Coast Stima (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Commandos attack 1.39 + Coast Stima defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Coast Stima attack 0.78 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Green Commandos scores more

41%

level

26%

Coast Stima scores more

33%

Green Commandos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Green Commandos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff