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Coast Stima vs Green Commandos — Super League 2018

Coast Stima
Coast Stima
FT
3 – 0
Green Commandos
Green Commandos
6/17/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Coast Stima60%
×Draw23%
Green Commandos17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coast Stima
1.80
Green Commandos
0.83

Coast Stima creates 117% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Coast Stima
1.93
Green Commandos
0.80

allows per match

Coast Stima
0.87
Green Commandos
1.67

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par
Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

Green Commandos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw
83%
Coast Stima or Green Commandos
77%
Draw or Green Commandos
40%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+
35%
Green Commandos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals
83%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
54%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
27%
Green Commandos 1+ goals
56%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
20%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)
78%
Green Commandos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.93 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Green Commandos attack 0.80 + Coast Stima defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Coast Stima scores more
60%
level
23%
Green Commandos scores more
17%

Coast Stima at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coast Stima vs Green Commandos

Coast Stima beat Green Commandos 3-0 in Super League on June 17, 2018.