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Green Commandos vs Administration Police Fc — Super League 2018

Green Commandos
Green Commandos
FT
2 – 1
Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
4/26/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Green Commandos42%
×Draw25%
Administration Police Fc33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Commandos
1.53
Administration Police Fc
1.33

Green Commandos creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Green Commandos
1.39
Administration Police Fc
1.00

allows per match

Green Commandos
1.67
Administration Police Fc
1.67

finishing

Green Commandos+0.00on par
Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Commandos ↓

Administration Police Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Green Commandos or draw
67%
Green Commandos or Administration Police Fc
75%
Draw or Administration Police Fc
58%

Winning margin

Green Commandos wins by 2+
21%
Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Green Commandos 1+ goals
78%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
45%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
20%
Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
74%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
38%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Green Commandos (draw refunded)
56%
Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Administration Police Fc away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Commandos attack 1.39 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Administration Police Fc attack 1.00 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Green Commandos scores more
42%
level
25%
Administration Police Fc scores more
33%

Green Commandos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Green Commandos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Commandos vs Administration Police Fc

Green Commandos beat Administration Police Fc 2-1 in Super League on April 26, 2018.