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Administration Police Fc vs Green Commandos — Super League 2018

Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
FT
1 – 2
Green Commandos
Green Commandos
9/14/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Administration Police Fc38%
×Draw28%
Green Commandos35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Administration Police Fc
1.23
Green Commandos
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Administration Police Fc
0.93
Green Commandos
0.80

allows per match

Administration Police Fc
1.53
Green Commandos
1.53

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par
Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

Green Commandos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw
65%
Administration Police Fc or Green Commandos
72%
Draw or Green Commandos
62%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
16%
Green Commandos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
71%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
35%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
13%
Green Commandos 1+ goals
69%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
33%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
52%
Green Commandos (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 0.93 + Green Commandos defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Green Commandos attack 0.80 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more
38%
level
28%
Green Commandos scores more
35%

Administration Police Fc at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Administration Police Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Administration Police Fc 1–2 Green Commandos

Green Commandos beat Administration Police Fc 2-1 in Super League on September 14, 2018.