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Green Buffaloes vs Forest Rangers — Super League 2019

Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
1/18/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Green Buffaloes42%
×Draw29%
Forest Rangers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Buffaloes
1.22
Forest Rangers
0.97

Green Buffaloes creates 26% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

Green Buffaloes
1.26
Forest Rangers
1.00

allows per match

Green Buffaloes
0.93
Forest Rangers
1.18

finishing

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par
Forest Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Buffaloes ↓

Forest Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Green Buffaloes or draw
71%
Green Buffaloes or Forest Rangers
71%
Draw or Forest Rangers
58%

Winning margin

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
18%
Forest Rangers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
70%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
34%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
12%
Forest Rangers 1+ goals
62%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
25%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
59%
Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

Forest Rangers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + Forest Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Forest Rangers attack 1.00 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Green Buffaloes scores more
42%
level
29%
Forest Rangers scores more
29%

Green Buffaloes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Buffaloes vs Forest Rangers

Forest Rangers beat Green Buffaloes 3-2 in Super League on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.