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Forest Rangers vs Green Buffaloes — Super League 2019

Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
12/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Dola Hill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Forest Rangers42%
×Draw32%
Green Buffaloes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Rangers
1.09
Green Buffaloes
0.79

Forest Rangers creates 38% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

creates per match

Forest Rangers
1.06
Green Buffaloes
0.82

allows per match

Forest Rangers
0.77
Green Buffaloes
1.13

finishing

Forest Rangers+0.00on par
Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Rangers ↓

Green Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Forest Rangers or draw
74%
Forest Rangers or Green Buffaloes
68%
Draw or Green Buffaloes
58%

Winning margin

Forest Rangers wins by 2+
17%
Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Forest Rangers 1+ goals
66%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
30%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
10%
Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
55%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
19%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
62%
Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Rangers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Green Buffaloes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Rangers attack 1.06 + Green Buffaloes defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Green Buffaloes attack 0.82 + Forest Rangers defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Forest Rangers scores more
42%
level
32%
Green Buffaloes scores more
26%

Forest Rangers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Forest Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forest Rangers vs Green Buffaloes

Forest Rangers beat Green Buffaloes 2-0 in Super League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Dola Hill Stadium in Ndola.