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Green Bay Voyageurs vs Chicago Fire II — USL League Two 2018

Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
FT
0 – 1
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
6/5/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 17Capital Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Green Bay Voyageurs22%
×Draw23%
Chicago Fire II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.12
Chicago Fire II
1.88

Chicago Fire II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

creates per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
Chicago Fire II
2.76

allows per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
Chicago Fire II
1.24

finishing

Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Bay Voyageurs ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Green Bay Voyageurs or draw
45%
Green Bay Voyageurs or Chicago Fire II
77%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
78%

Winning margin

Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
9%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
67%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
31%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
10%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
85%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
56%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
29%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Bay Voyageurs at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
22%
level
23%
Chicago Fire II scores more
55%

Chicago Fire II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Green Bay Voyageurs 0 – 1 Chicago Fire II

Chicago Fire II beat Green Bay Voyageurs 1-0 in USL League Two on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Capital Credit Union Park in Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin.