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Chicago Fire II vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
FT
4 – 0
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
6/3/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Bridgeview Sports Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chicago Fire II67%
×Draw18%
Green Bay Voyageurs15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
2.36
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.03

Chicago Fire II creates 129% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.61
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.06
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
85%
Chicago Fire II or Green Bay Voyageurs
82%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
33%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
44%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
90%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
68%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
41%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
64%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
28%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
82%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.61 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.36

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
67%
level
18%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
15%

Chicago Fire II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicago Fire II vs Green Bay Voyageurs

Chicago Fire II beat Green Bay Voyageurs 4-0 in USL League Two on June 3, 2021.

The match was played at Bridgeview Sports Dome in Bridgeview, Illinois.