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Greece vs Finland — Euro Championship 2024

Greece
Greece
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Finland
Finland
K. Galanopoulos 70'
P. Mandalos 47'
T. Pukki 27'
11/18/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 10Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Greece37%
×Draw25%
Finland38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greece
1.39
Finland
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Greece
1.17
Finland
1.00

allows per match

Greece
1.83
Finland
1.60

finishing

Greece+0.00on par
Finland+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Finland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Greece or draw
62%
Greece or Finland
75%
Draw or Finland
63%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+
17%
Finland wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals
75%
Greece 2+ goals
40%
Greece 3+ goals
16%
Finland 1+ goals
76%
Finland 2+ goals
41%
Finland 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)
49%
Finland (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Finland away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.17 + Finland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Finland attack 1.00 + Greece defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Greece scores more
37%
level
25%
Finland scores more
38%

Finland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Finland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
M. BakakisGreeceGreece · D
8.3

Match Events

27'
T. Pukki
31'
Joona Toivio
34'
Dimitrios Kourbelis
47'
P. Mandalos↳ A. Bakasetas
59'
T. Lam← J. Toivio
64'
E. Koulouris← V. Pavlidis
70'
K. Galanopoulos
71'
Joni Kauko
73'
A. Bouchalakis← K. Galanopoulos
77'
F. Jensen← R. Schüller
78'
P. Soiri← S. Skrabb
90+3'
G. Masouras← P. Mandalos

Possession

58%Greece

Shots

26Greece

Pass accuracy

52%Greece

Statistics

GreeceFinland
Overview
58%Possession42%
26Total Shots4
9Corners1
6Fouls14
Shots
26Total Shots4
7On Target2
11Off Target2
8Blocked0
19Inside Box4
7Outside Box0
Passing
58%Possession42%
603Total Passes430
534Accurate Passes358
89%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Euro Championship: Greece 2–1 Finland

Greece beat Finland 2-1 in Euro Championship on November 18, 2019.

Goals: T. Pukki (27'), P. Mandalos (47'), K. Galanopoulos (70').

Greece controlled possession (58%) and registered 26 shots to 4.

The match was played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Athens.