Greece 1–0 Finland: Result & Stats

Greece

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Finland

Albin Granlund 25' (OG)

11/15/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 5Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Greece57%

×Draw28%

Finland15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GreeceExpected goals in this matchFinland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.55

Greece

1.38

Finland

0.55

Greece creates 151% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.31

creates per match

0.64

0.46

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Greece

1.31

Finland

0.64

allows per match

Greece

0.46

Finland

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece+0.00on par

Finland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Finland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Greece or draw

85%

Greece or Finland

72%

Draw or Finland

43%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+

29%

Finland wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals

75%

Greece 2+ goals

40%

Greece 3+ goals

16%

Finland 1+ goals

42%

Finland 2+ goals

11%

Finland 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)

80%

Finland (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Finland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.31 + Finland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Finland attack 0.64 + Greece defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Greece scores more

57%

level

28%

Finland scores more

15%

Greece at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Albin GranlundOwn goal

28'

Dimitrios Siovas← Kōnstantinos Manōlas

46'

Albin Granlund

69'

Efthimis Koulouris← Konstantinos Mitroglou

74'

Fredrik Jensen← Pyry Soiri

83'

Juha Pirinen← Jasse Tuominen

84'

Anastasios Bakasetas← Dimitris Pelkas

90'

Thomas Lam← Teemu Pukki

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GreeceFinland

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots2

3Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots2

1On Target0

8Off Target2

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1