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Great Olympics vs Ashanti Gold — Premier League 2019

Great Olympics
Great Olympics
FT
1 – 2
Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
G. Awako 14'
Y. Annor 47'
A. Addai 45+2'
1/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Great Olympics50%
×Draw29%
Ashanti Gold21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Olympics
1.31
Ashanti Gold
0.74

Great Olympics creates 77% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 45 away

creates per match

Great Olympics
1.26
Ashanti Gold
0.84

allows per match

Great Olympics
0.64
Ashanti Gold
1.36

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par
Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Ashanti Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw
79%
Great Olympics or Ashanti Gold
71%
Draw or Ashanti Gold
50%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+
24%
Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals
73%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
38%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
14%
Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
52%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
17%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)
70%
Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.64 · 77 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.26 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ashanti Gold attack 0.84 + Great Olympics defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Great Olympics scores more
50%
level
29%
Ashanti Gold scores more
21%

Great Olympics at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
G. Awako
26'
27'
A. Addai
36'
A. Da Costa
45+2'
A. Addai
46'
A. Addai← Y. Annor
47'
Y. Annor
56'
I. Samed
60'
K. Amoako← K. Amoako
67'
D. Sandan Abagna
69'
W. Fuseini← W. Fuseini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Great Olympics vs Ashanti Gold

Ashanti Gold beat Great Olympics 2-1 in Premier League on January 10, 2021.

Goals: G. Awako (14'), A. Addai (45+2'), Y. Annor (47').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.