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Ashanti Gold vs Great Olympics — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
1 – 0
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
S. Banahene 54' (pen)
5/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ashanti Gold60%
×Draw26%
Great Olympics14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.53
Great Olympics
0.59

Ashanti Gold creates 159% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.78
Great Olympics
0.61

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.58
Great Olympics
1.28

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
86%
Ashanti Gold or Great Olympics
74%
Draw or Great Olympics
40%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
32%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
78%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
45%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
20%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
45%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
12%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
81%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.28 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.78 + Great Olympics defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.53

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
60%
level
26%
Great Olympics scores more
14%

Ashanti Gold at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
S. BanahenePenalty
57'
N. Asamoah← N. Asamoah
78'
M. Agama← M. Agama
90'
A. Addai
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ashanti Gold 1–0 Great Olympics

Ashanti Gold beat Great Olympics 1-0 in Premier League on May 16, 2021.

Goals: S. Banahene (54' pen).

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.