Grazer AK 3–0 Bad Gleichenberg: Result & Stats

Grazer AK

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bad Gleichenberg

7/28/2018

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 1Sportzentrum Graz-Weinzödl (Graz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grazer AK61%

×Draw19%

Bad Gleichenberg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grazer AKExpected goals in this matchBad Gleichenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.31

Grazer AK

2.38

Bad Gleichenberg

1.31

Grazer AK creates 82% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

2.73

creates per match

1.75

0.87

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Grazer AK

2.73

Bad Gleichenberg

1.75

allows per match

Grazer AK

0.87

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grazer AK+0.00on par

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grazer AK ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Grazer AK or draw

80%

Grazer AK or Bad Gleichenberg

81%

Draw or Bad Gleichenberg

39%

Winning margin

Grazer AK wins by 2+

39%

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grazer AK 1+ goals

91%

Grazer AK 2+ goals

68%

Grazer AK 3+ goals

42%

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

73%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

38%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Grazer AK (draw refunded)

75%

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grazer AK at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grazer AK attack 2.73 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.38

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Grazer AK defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Grazer AK scores more

61%

level

19%

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

20%

Grazer AK at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff