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Bad Gleichenberg vs Grazer AK — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
0 – 2
Grazer AK
Grazer AK
3/9/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 16Bad Gleichenberg Arena (Bad Gleichenberg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg37%
×Draw22%
Grazer AK40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
1.70
Grazer AK
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
Grazer AK
1.93

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
Grazer AK
1.00

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
Grazer AK+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Grazer AK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
60%
Bad Gleichenberg or Grazer AK
78%
Draw or Grazer AK
63%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
19%
Grazer AK wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
82%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
51%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
24%
Grazer AK 1+ goals
83%
Grazer AK 2+ goals
53%
Grazer AK 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
48%
Grazer AK (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Grazer AK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Grazer AK attack 1.93 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
37%
level
22%
Grazer AK scores more
40%

Grazer AK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Bad Gleichenberg 0–2 Grazer AK

Grazer AK beat Bad Gleichenberg 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena (Bad Gleichenberg).