Alashkert 0–2 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

Alashkert

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CFR 1907 Cluj

G. Țucudean 49' (pen), 5'

8/9/2018

UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundVazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alashkert33%

×Draw32%

CFR 1907 Cluj35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlashkertExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.97

Alashkert

0.92

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

0.60

creates per match

0.54

1.40

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Alashkert

0.60

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.54

allows per match

Alashkert

1.40

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alashkert+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Alashkert or draw

65%

Alashkert or CFR 1907 Cluj

68%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

67%

Winning margin

Alashkert wins by 2+

12%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alashkert 1+ goals

60%

Alashkert 2+ goals

23%

Alashkert 3+ goals

7%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

62%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

25%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alashkert (draw refunded)

48%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert attack 0.60 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.92

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 0.54 + Alashkert defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Alashkert scores more

33%

level

32%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

35%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

G. Țucudean

27'

Artur Yedigaryan

28'

Danijel Stojković

48'

Oliver Práznovský

49'

G. ȚucudeanPenalty

52'

D. Sekulić← Artur Yedigaryan

53'

E. Manucharyan← Gustavo Marmentini

63'

V. Costache← S. Mailat

65'

C. Romero← Jefferson

68'

Cesar Romero

68'

R. Tambe← G. Țucudean

82'

Alexandru Ioniţă II← M. Bordeianu

86'

Artak Grigoryan

Alashkert5-4-1

CFR4-2-3-1

20

⚽2

▼

Țucudean

27

▼

Mailat

7

Păun

37

▼

8

28

6

45

55

30

87

55

5

3

22

17

8

18

▼

Jefferson

2

▼

Marmentin

21

Grigoryan

20

▼

Yedigarya

15

Nenadović

Manager: V. Sukiasyan

52'▲D. Sekulić←▼Artur Yedigaryan

53'▲E. Manucharyan←▼Gustavo Marmentini

65'▲C. Romero←▼Jefferson

Alashkert substitutes

13Sekulić11Manucharyan19Romero1Avagyan6Antonić9Dashyan14Simonyan

Manager: Toni

63'▲V. Costache←▼S. Mailat

68'▲R. Tambe←▼G. Țucudean

82'▲Alexandru Ioniţă II←▼M. Bordeianu

CFR 1907 Cluj substitutes

18Costache88Tambe31II5Maleš12Vâtcă22Lang77Peteleu